I think there might be a micro fracture in one of the solder traces on the board, because in some spots it looks slightly delaminated. Weird, this ballast has only about 2000 hours on it! But it is one of the earliest HF performers they made. I know they had some problems with the early generation.
Yep, I also think a solder crack (and consequently also trace crack) is indeed quite hot candidate for a fault. It checks a lot of boxes:
Is acting up only at some temperatures
It appeared after some time
Mainly when the thing was operated outdoors, so went through wide temperature swing cycles (cold winter nights vs hot summer days or evenings) or even worse mechanical vibration (wind vibrating a pole,...)
Sounds like part early production using lead free solder (it took about the two decades to iron the reliability problems out and settle to some usable solder composition, still still there is some engineering work to do)
And it is the most frequent case of things failing on their own with modern electronic. And ironically one of the last to think about when diagnosing (I'm also guilty of overlooking that :-) )...
I think
here is described what to look for: faint line circles around leads in solder joints are fatigue crack forming. Most prone are heavy components, but small regular ones aren't immune either, mainly when they have short stiff leads not allowing any give for thermal expansion of the board.
Reflowing them using quality flux and solder tends to solve the problem.
Of course be on watch for broken traces. If nothing exploded yet and mainly when the ballast is working at least sometimes, there is high chance the components are still good so the fix could be successful.