It could be either capacitor with lower capacitance (the "selfrecovery" feature had to act too often and so had eaten up significant amount of the active surface area), or with some ballast designs it may be the capacitor shorted (the inductive impedance is too high, as it is supposed to be subtracted from the capacitive one in a CWA system)
Or the ballasts are just marginal in the output current, so it may happen some lamps get stuck in some low temperature/pressure/voltage so transferred power state. It could be a result of too high voltage drop in AC input feeding cable.
I don't think that failure happens only with HPS and not with MV, the MV are just way less sensitive to that.
With the HPS even about 10,,20% ballast output current reduction may cause lumen drop more than 50%, just because the lamp is not able to heat up, so remains with lower pressure, so lower voltage drop state. The same happens, when you install higher wattage lamp into a lower wattage fixture... The MV§s normally operate when all the MV is evaporated, so 10,,205 current reduction does not alter the arc voltage yet, so the output is just the 20% lower and that you most likely won't see.
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