This question can only be answered differently.
The word "rare" defines each person individually. So: for the operator of street lighting systems, lamps are "rare" if there are major problems with procurement. An example for Germany would be the normal mercury vapor lamp with phosphor. Some cities are already replacing the entire fixtures, because there are no longer enough spare lamps. The replacement is of course LED.
There are regularly inventories of lamps almost everywhere at the municipalities or service companies. 100 lamps is a lot in a small village. That could be enough for another 20 years. 100 lamps in a city is very little. That might be enough for a street or two.
However, the consequence is not that a PHILIPS HPL-N Type 4 lamp, for example, will be rare in 20 years.
The other consideration is: what is rare for us collectors?
A 20-year-old street light is not uncommon. This is more likely to be the case if the lamp is 40, 50 or 60 years old. It's the same with the lamps. A young collector starts his hobby. What are the first lamps in his collection ? Usually the lamps he gets the easiest and cheapest. This is also completely normal. The rare lamps usually only come into the collection later.
So my summary: rarely you can not define concretely. My personal observation is that after about 40 years, frequently produced lamps, fixtures and gear start to become "rarer".
Regards from Hamburg
Olav
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