The temperature is about -5°C right now outside, so we're not talking about crazy low temps. They should work down to -15°C, probably even colder, without any issue whatsoever. So we're definitely not outside of the temperature range here. The 49W tubes are pretty easy to strike in the cold from experience with other fixtures, and they seem to warm up pretty quick in enclosed luminaries like mine at home which is the one behaving weird.
I think my approach will be checking the main electrolytes with the heat gun. If that doesn't give any positive result, I'll try the resonance capacitor. The resonance cap is actually somewhat suspect already, because the tubes have what I'd call severe end blackening after just about 1000-2000 hours. That's literally nothing. I'd expect this level of end blackening at maybe 40000-50000 hours. I'll dig into it more after work today, I really want to learn what's wrong with it!

and I want to fix it!
Yes indeed film caps do fail, and to be honest, I think that's what has happened somewhere! The elevtrolytics both checked fine :O