But it won't flash over until the filament fails, as that is the path of least resistance so long as it's intact, but it would make EOL interesting, and they would also be banned in Europe..
Well, that is true only when the lamp is designed so, the electrical field does not ignite the discharge. That works quite well with classic lamp fills (well, the 230V lamps need to have the fill composition engineered to reach the required strength), where sufficient gas pressure makes sure that arc ignition voltage is high enough.
But the mercury condenses when it is cold and that means you can not build up any high mercury pressure, plus the mercury is easier to ionize.
This effect is used in many discharge lamps (old ozone generation lamps, the old GE S1 and S2 "sun" lamps,...) - the filament just on the lead wires is thicker and serves as main electrodes, then the middle section is thinner and its purpose is just allow the current to pass and preheat the electrode sections.