@Ash , @Medved , and @RRK are the guys that would have a good idea of whats up..

Strobe circuits are usually pretty simple though.

You will need to post pictures of the PCB itself both front and back at minimum. Cant really tell whats going on from model number alone.

Likely to be the main electrolytic capacitor that's gone, I had this with a Tridonic 18W TC-D ballast, it worked perfectly when warm but refused to do anything when cold. When I held the ballast PCB over a heater for a few moments and then tried it, it came back to life immediately.
The EL cap did run noticeably hot when in use, but replacing it for a suitable equivalent restored the ballast to normal again.

There is a lot about the ESR of the caps and this changing when they dry out, and of course you ned to get a replacement one of the correct values, though at the moment a lot of that is above my understanding of the subject.
I do also wonder if this may become an issue with old NOS HF ballasts that have been stored for a long time, if the caps eventually dry out.
Hopefully your ballast should be repairable though as it has failed like this rather than with a "bang" which usually means something more serious!

At first I would thought maybe the tube was having cold temperature striking issues, but even that would probably draw some measurable current from the mains. Maybe it has some sort of protection circuit that turns off the ballast if the tube doesn't strike? What kind of temperatures are we talking about here in terms of cold and warm?

I am a bigtime electronics nerd, and I can shamelessly spend way too much time digging into things that other people would deem silly. I found myself having a very weird behaving 2x49W T5 HO fixture recently. It uses a Philips HF Performer, HF-P 249 TL5 220-240. It works absolutely flawlessly when it's warm, but as soon as the temperature drops, it refuses to start. Not even a blink, or tube glowage, nothing. It does not even draw any wattage.

My obvious suspect is failing capacitors. So I took it apart, but to my surprise, the majority of capacitors are actually polyfilm, which more or less never go bad. There is just two electrolytics in the whole thing, the main filter cap for the rectified mains, and then a small one presumebly for filtering the supply going to the PFC chip. I yanked the small 47uF 35V cap which acts as a filter for the PFC chip to measure it, but it appears absolutely fine, so I will likely put it back. Now my suspect leans more towards a transistor or FET or something like that on the thing which may not like the cold. I plan on troubleshooting it more tomorrow after work, I think I will put it back together, and try to start it in the cold again. Assuming that it still does it, which I think it most certainly will, I think i will take my heatgun and heat around a little and see if we can pinpoint exactly what is wrong!

I just wanted to share a little about this, I am curious if there is anyone else out there who has repaired ballasts before, and I am also curious if anyone else has had a similar failure mode! this is definetely a peculiar failure!

I would say get the used one. Obviously chokes do fail, but not very often. I think a used one will work okay. And it is made in the USA which is nice. Obviously if it is untested you are taking a gamble, but I am assuming you know it works.

At some point I want to make a F4T5 preheat fixture and I need your opinions on the ballast, I'm gonna use a Robertson SP48 ballast. There are two listings I'm looking at. A brand new one made in China for 24.95 or a USA made one used with some scuffs for $12.99.

@Medved

So you have a transformer with two identical windings (X-Y and Y-Z) connected in series so that their total measured inductance is effectively zero across X-Z. When you apply current across X-Z, the center node Y will gain voltage relative to the points X and Z (assuming X and Z are at equal voltage)? That sort of makes sense, but anything after that I am lost.

Yes, assuming the transformer has ideal coupling, so magnetic flux is exactly the same through both windings, so none could leak between them.

In reality you get some nonzero inductance, because the magnetic flux generated by one winding can squeeze without going through the other winding, this property of a transformer uses to be called "leakage inductance". How much it is depends on the exact arrangement. It could be few percents, or even 20..30% if there is really a space between both coils and/or even a magnetic shunt (a piece of iron core designed to provide that path).
With standard transformer you want that to be as low as possible, but with SRS some leakage inductance is beneficial, as it boosts the voltage across the lamp for ignition above the mains voltage.

European T8 lamps have krypton. European "Eco T8" and "Eco T5" lamps have xenon. American VHO T12 have Neon. F34T12 have krypton and external conductive coating.

We have now huge rain storm and thunderstorm, after days of dryness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zegtCgONRdQ

I don't know about fire alarm strobes, but I have some strobe light drivers and I know how they work. Usually they consist of a small step up transformer, the primary of which is driven by the discharge of a small capacitor. This sends an HV pulse to the antenna outside the tube which discharges a larger capacitor through the tube. I would say the most likely thing to go wrong is in the triggering circuitry. This is sometimes done with a neon indicator, but could be more complicated with fire alarms if they are supposed to strobe synchronously. Usually they aren't that complicated, just start checking the different components until you find a bad one. Do you have a picture of the board?