Author Topic: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it!  (Read 10647 times)
xmaslightguy
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #180 on: August 17, 2019, 08:35:53 AM » Author: xmaslightguy
@suzukir122:
Yep.. the various growth stages/cycles are cool..and you could say basically fascinating to watch.

And ofcourse there's the cyclic supercells that'll that'll drop a tornado, then weaken some, then re-strengthen, then do another tornado (and go on through that cycle multiple times). To actually go see/follow one of those along would be awesome!

Earlier this week, the one I mentioned as a "really cool looking" was basically a nice mothership-ish cloud-structure Smiley (never severe-warned, just a nice little storm, and short lived too - it died out not that long after passing by)
There was another the day before that was farther south, which also got the same mothership-ish look.

But this week, almost every evening there have been multiple severe-warned storms (and some tornado warned) in the northeastern part of CO.
(being well over 100 miles away, its just way too far to go see any...)


@Cole D:
I'd love to see some of that rain here instead...
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 08:44:44 AM by xmaslightguy » Logged

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suzukir122
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #181 on: August 18, 2019, 06:22:26 AM » Author: suzukir122
@Xmaslightguy, That's really, really strange that you saw a mothership style thunderstorm that wasn't a Supercell. Maybe it was a strong
thunderstorm gearing up to become severe/Supercell, but the ingredients for it to continue building just wasn't there. I don't know lol
but Supercells typically have that distinct UFO look to them, with the embedded Mesocyclone.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #182 on: August 18, 2019, 08:54:20 AM » Author: xmaslightguy
@@suzukir122:
Yep I was a bit surprised to see a smaller/non-severe storm with that look...but it was also growing pretty quickly. So maybe it was getting a mesocyclone going, and on its way to becoming a stronger/severe storm.

It was headed east, and there was an outflow-boundary from earlier severe storms headed west...when they met (which I was watching on radar) it basically killed the storm (and the section of the boundary that met it). Boring. I thought maybe they'd merge & really enhance that storm! (which is why I went outside to watch once they were meeting eachother. Atleast I got to see a really cool cloud Smiley )
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Cole D.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #183 on: August 30, 2019, 10:19:40 PM » Author: Cole D.
Well this week, we're supposed to get some effect from Hurricane Dorian. But I hope it veers out to sea and no lives or property is lost. If it hits here I just know the power will be out for probably two weeks. It seem we are always out for that long after the hurricanes. Plus stores might be closed at least a week. They're already running out of items in the grocery stores for a few days ago and the lines at gas stations, and stations running out of gas.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #184 on: August 30, 2019, 11:17:05 PM » Author: tolivac
The transmitter plant where I work is preparing For Dorian-they have the company vehicles parked in the garages.At this stage more vehicles than employees!
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #185 on: August 31, 2019, 06:00:51 AM » Author: suzukir122
@Cole D, are you in Florida? If so, this storm will be a very serious, possibly life threatening/life
changing for you.
My friend Cecile lives in Miami Florida and she just moved there. I texted her and asked her if she evacuated
and she replied, "Oh no, I am not evacuating. My apt has impact windows. I will be okay." This mentality that she
has could get her killed. It has quickly became obvious that she may not know the seriousness of the situation.
As of now, she is the only friend I have that lives in Florida. She also told me she will "keep me updated."
And I'm like... sigh... girl... just get your stuff and leave. She does have many photos of her with friends or
relatives there with her. So they *should* all be evacuating, but nooo.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #186 on: August 31, 2019, 08:18:37 AM » Author: xmaslightguy
@suzukir122:
No...you stay and video it! (especially the eyewall, and eye) .LOL.
Or you could be like the stormchaser guys and head down there...

-------------
Seeing the latest updates..
Dorian is a category 4 with 145mph sustained winds, and is expected to strengthen. This may be a category 5 later today.
Its also expected to turn more northward. Not make landfall in FL, but in SC (though if it takes that track a good part of the east-FL coast could still be affected, along with GA & SC).

*If* it turns north earlier, it could miss FL alltogether, and make landfall somewhere farther north in the US.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #187 on: August 31, 2019, 08:28:38 PM » Author: CEB1993
@suzukir122:
No...you stay and video it! (especially the eyewall, and eye) .LOL.
Or you could be like the stormchaser guys and head down there...

-------------
Seeing the latest updates..
Dorian is a category 4 with 145mph sustained winds, and is expected to strengthen. This may be a category 5 later today.
Its also expected to turn more northward. Not make landfall in FL, but in SC (though if it takes that track a good part of the east-FL coast could still be affected, along with GA & SC).

*If* it turns north earlier, it could miss FL alltogether, and make landfall somewhere farther north in the US.

Yep, looks like Florida could dodge a huge bullet this time.

With that said, the state of South Carolina has already issued a state of emergency and costal flood warnings are in effect. I知 a long way from the coast, but I am familiar with most coastal areas and know that parts of Charleston are below sea level and prone to disastrous flooding. I知 glad I知 safely inland and I hope everyone on the coast either evacuates or takes the appropriate precautions to ride this thing out.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #188 on: September 01, 2019, 06:05:17 AM » Author: suzukir122
Yeah it really does look like my friend, and Florida in general, dodged a BIG bullet. As I type this, Dorian
has become a category 5 hurricane. Clear center eye as well.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #189 on: September 01, 2019, 06:29:15 AM » Author: CEB1993
Yeah it really does look like my friend, and Florida in general, dodged a BIG bullet. As I type this, Dorian
has become a category 5 hurricane. Clear center eye as well.

Wow  Shocked I just saw the Weather Channel update today that mentioned 185 mph wind gusts and over a foot of rain in the Bahama islands. This could be a repeat of Florence in the SC/NC coastal areas. I知 watching carefully and I知 in good shape being a long way inland.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #190 on: September 01, 2019, 07:18:05 PM » Author: xmaslightguy
Quote from: CEB1993
Wow  Shocked I just saw the Weather Channel update today that mentioned 185 mph wind gusts and over a foot of rain in the Bahama islands. This could be a repeat of Florence in the SC/NC coastal areas. I知 watching carefully and I知 in good shape being a long way inland.
Plus even more dangerous than the 12"-24" of rain, the storm-surge of up 18 to 23 feet above normal tide for some parts of the Bahamas. Shocked
Seeing the latest NHC updates, this one might go up along east coast but not actually make landfall...

It should also be noted that there are 3 other weather disturbances out there, one of which has a greater than 60% cyclone formation chance in the next 5 days.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #191 on: September 02, 2019, 06:07:22 AM » Author: suzukir122
@Xmaslightguy, I wonder if those disturbances may follow the same path as Dorian? I've seen that happen sometimes before
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #192 on: September 02, 2019, 09:50:14 AM » Author: xmaslightguy
Quote from: suzukir122
@Xmaslightguy, I wonder if those disturbances may follow the same path as Dorian? I've seen that happen sometimes before
I've seen that happen before too.
In this case no, especially some of them.

Pic one shows the chances of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days.
Pic two shows their possible stormtracks for the next 5 days. (note the 4th disturbance added for that period - probably if any followed Dorian's path it'd be that one)

------------
Seeing these graphics shows there could be a quite 'interesting' period coming up here...

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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #193 on: September 02, 2019, 07:37:50 PM » Author: CEB1993
I've seen that happen before too.
In this case no, especially some of them.

Pic one shows the chances of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days.
Pic two shows their possible stormtracks for the next 5 days. (note the 4th disturbance added for that period - probably if any followed Dorian's path it'd be that one)

------------
Seeing these graphics shows there could be a quite 'interesting' period coming up here...



Looks like the two orange X's won't cause much trouble, aside from some heavy rain on the east coast of Mexico.  That red X that's in the East Atlantic looks ominous.  A lot of warm water and chances to strengthen between it and the Caribbean and the USA. 

Most of the SC coast has been upgraded to "Hurricane Watch."  Charleston and Folly Beach are forecasted to have up to 10 inches of rain and sustained winds of 50 mph.  There's definitely going to be some severe beach erosion and flooding from Florida all the way up to the NC coast.  Dorian is moving slowly, so I'm expecting major flooding and many impassible roads in the coastal SC area.  I would also expect I-26 to have reversed lanes this week with only westward traffic, to efficiently allow coastal residents to evacuate.  Scary situation, but unfortunately somewhat common here in the southeast.
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Re: Its severe weather season! Be prepared for it! « Reply #194 on: September 02, 2019, 08:10:26 PM » Author: wide-lite 1000
To all of you in the south eastern US : keep your eye to the sky and ears to the TV/Radio and please BE CAREFUL ! Don't want to see anyone get hurt !
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